Summary
With just under two weeks to go until release, Marvel Studios and Kevin Feige are going all in onThunderbolts*, betting big on early fan enthusiasm to kick off the film’s momentum. From April 22, fans who can’t hold the urge till May 2 may, on a first-come, first-served basis through Fandango, attend free fan screenings which will be playing in select IMAX theaters across 10 major U.S. cities—Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Dallas, Austin, Boston, Miami, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Kansas City. Japan will also join the early hype, holding its own fan screening on April 24.
Thunderbolts*early sell-out of pre-sale tickets validates that confidence. In other words, the buzz and excitement are a good sign for any studio. But super-early screenings come with a risky side effect that analysts warn is especially applicable to blockbusters of this nature. Marvel may shoot itself in the leg with its confidence about audience-wide approval ofa team of “Suicide Squad”-like antiheroes.
Super-Early Fan Screenings Are A Double-Edged Sword For Blockbusters And Their Studios
It May Either Achieve The Intended Goal Or Backfire
According to box office analystLuiz Fernando on X, screening a blockbuster tied to a well-established IP earlier than a week before release is an aggressive promotional strategy that may undermine a crucial marketing ally: die-hard fans. He’s not wrong. The buzz usually ignited by this demographic on the movie’s opening day is crucial in pressuring the general audience into buying a ticket. Hand the former an early screening, and they have little reason to rally in theaters on the opening night, weakening the movie’s initial momentum, no matter how small.
IfThunderbolts*is to have an early fan screening (different from test screenings), it must leave no shadow of doubt as to its quality among attendees that they long to show up again on the general opening weekend. It adheres to all themarketing principles in Hollywood. Suppose the film indeed turns out to be below par. Casual viewers probably won’t find out till Day 3 (Sunday) of its release. An early screening two weeks prior, however, births a deadly combination: bad word-of-mouth and enough time for it to seep in. If hardcore fans—the very group meant to ignite opening weekend excitement—respond with lukewarm reactions or apathy, it could have a chilling effect on broader audience turnout. ImagineBatman V Superman: Dawn of Justicehad a ten-day early screening with all the bad word-of-mouth. Its historic $422 million worldwide opening would have seriously tanked.
Thunderbolts*social media embargo lifts on April 22, meaning that the only reviews of the film pending the April 29 embargo of critics of the film would come from fan attendees.
DCEU’sThe FlashAnd Warner Bros. Have Quite A Negative Fan Screening Story To Tell
On the south end of early fan screening outcomes liesAndy Muschietti’sThe Flash. DC executives took Barry Allen’s fame as the fastest man alive a little too literally and offered fans an opportunity to see it early. Ezra Miller’s solo outing as DC’s speedster was rebuked by even the staunchest fans. Worse, the marketing team made the fatal mistake of touting the film as “the best thing sinceThe Dark Knight,” a trick that hasn’t worked for past DCEU films. Early and multiple fan screenings came out negatively and had a hand inThe Flash’sdisastrous $55 million domestic opening.
This is not to say thatThe Flash’s commercial fortunes would have significantly improved with late and few screenings. A bad film remains a bad film, no matter how it is spun or how superb the marketing team is involved. Besides, the DCEU was already struggling to draw audiences post-Justice League. Early negative word-of-mouth coming from the screenings surely solidified the reservations that the average viewer had of a non-Batman or Superman IP coming from the DC Extended Universe.
Marvel’s Confidence WithThunderbolts*Can Be Directly Tied toGuardians of the Galaxy Vol.3
Kevin Feige, on the other hand, clearly understood the assignment withGuardians of the Galaxy Vol.3. The cosmic threequel proved to be of such premium quality that it was enough to convince marketers to roll out very-early screenings two weeks prior. And it paid off. It’s reasonable to presume, then, thatThunderbolts*is getting a similar treatment because Marvel believes it delivers a comparable level of quality, and one that’s commercially viable.
Still, expectations must be tempered.Thunderbolts*’is tracking to open with a modest $70 million domestically, $43 million less thanGuardian of the Galaxy Vol.3and $63 million less thanSuicide Squad,to which it is so often compared. Hopefully, it is leggier and better received thanCaptain America: Brave New World. Unlike the MCU’s heyday, audiences have started second-guessing what Kevin Feige and friends are selling; thus, a lot rides onThunderbolts*than meets the eye. If theearly test screenings from criticsare anything to go by, the film will be solid.
Thunderbolts*debuts in theaters worldwide on May 2
